J.P. Morgan Chase’s Muted Profit Growth Clouds Stock Outlook Despite Strong H1 2025 Performance

J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) delivered robust profitability in the first half of 2025, buoyed by modest gains in net interest income and a surge in non-interest revenue during April's market turbulence. These factors helped compensate for the absence of last year's one-time Visa windfall. The bank's resilience against Fed rate cuts underscores its operational strength, yet analysts project limited earnings growth for 2026 as transient market tailwinds fade.

Shares trade at a premium to peers, reinforcing a neutral stance. First-half earnings per share dipped 2.4% year-over-year to $10.31, though net interest income edged up 1.4%—a testament to effective balance sheet management amid shifting rates. Management's guidance for $92 billion in net interest income (ex-Markets) reflects confidence in deposit growth and yield curve positioning.